Trend update

The short-term trend has been down since the Fed meeting day and has been on a continuation sell since March 27. If you view every bounce as a start of new trend, then you would have been chopped to pieces, every other day. Trend turns take time, not just price. In the context of a downtrend, bigger the bounce, the juicier the short. In a downtrend you need to short at the point of lowest volatility (which is near peak of the bounces) and get out using a trailing stop when the volatility gets high. Trying to short when the volatility is high or trying to buy when the volatility is low is disastrous. Many of them have learn't this costly lesson in the last few months.

Right now we have another bounce and the volatility should drop significantly by tomorrow. The size of the bounce has pushed this close to a buy, but not quite yet. We are now again at an inflection point, which should get resolved in a day or two.

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