While the CNN fear and greed index can be a good indicator of short-term tops and bottoms, there is something more sinister at play here. Whenever the CNN fear and greed index goes to the extremes, a reflex bounce occurs to reset the sentiment. But that may not create the necessary conditions for a sustainable intermediate-term bottom. Here's why. The investors intelligence survey recorded some extremes in spreads between the bears and bulls. The spread even exceeded the 1987 top. I posted this many times on traders-talk.com. But this was largely ignored by amateurs and professionals alike, as the parabolic move gave a false sense of security that nothing could go wrong. The amount of froth and participation required to create a parabolic advance, in itself is a huge measure of sentiment. You don't need any sentiment surveys. Just one look at Dec 2017 to Feb 2018 charts of Bitcoin, ICOs and the S&P/DOW/Nasdaq should sum it all up. What differentiates a minor top from a...
Well, since folks love to use the term "Trump rally", i thought i would use the term "Trump impeachment channel" for the long term controlling channel. Currently the channel lies around SPX 2500. If SPX 2500 breaks, it would be a full fledged bear market. You can forget about any subsequent new highs, if that happens. As long as S&P trades above 2500, the bull market is alive and well. Well, firstly i don't like the term "Trump rally", as it would assign the stock market rally causality to politicians. If the 40% rally in 2017 was the Trump rally, then the 200% rally off the SPX 666 lows should be called the "Obama rally". We know both are not true. The Trump impeachment talks have been going on for over an year. As long as the stock market trades above that long term channel, i would say "Forget it !". No impeachment will occur until the social mood turns sour and the market enters a bear phase. Right now everybody is ...
Thanks, Nav. I'll be following you here.
ReplyDeleteI second here, Nav. will follow you as well.
ReplyDeleteMany thanks NAV
ReplyDeleteHey NAV, any price point level you looking to get short today?
ReplyDelete